Equity Capital Markets Update, January 2026

Download this report (PDF, 1.7 MB)

U.S. Market Commentary

Key U.S. Macro Themes

Administration, Trade, and Economic Growth

• The U.S. government entered a partial shutdown on 1/30 after Congress failed to deliver a spending package by midnight deadline
• Tariff concerns stay at forefront with U.S. threatening 100% tariffs on Canada as they work towards a trade deal with China
• On 1/29 the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $56.8BN trade deficit in November 2025 – up 94% from prior month

Monetary Policy, Labor Market, and Inflation

• On 1/30, President Trump announced Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair nominee – news triggered a broader U.S. equities sell-off as Warsh is regarded as the toughest inflation fighter out of the other candidates – raising expectations of tighter economic policy
• Perceptions of the Warsh appointment are hawkish, and other Fed officials such as Raphael Bostic are projecting zero rate cuts in 2026
• Official U.S. unemployment rate is 4.4% – no official data released since September 2025 – median Fed 2025 projections holding steady at 4.5%
• U.S. CPI rose 2.7% for the 12-month period ended November 2025

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, FOMC, BEA. Market data as of 12/31/26. Issuance figures exclude SPAC IPOs.

U.S. Equities Overview

Public Equity Markets

• S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ performance was modestly positive for the four-week period ended January 30th
  – Equity markets had rallied through the month before abruptly backing off after the new Fed Chair nominee was announced, also prompting historic single-day price drops in other non-equity assets
  – YTD performance is up +1.4%, +1.7%, and +1.0%, respectively

Equity Capital Markets

• Over the last four weeks, 9 IPOs representing ~$3BN and 38 follow-ons representing ~$7BN have priced across a variety of sectors
• Notable transactions include:
  – PicPay – $434mm IPO – (5.3%) offer-to-current
  – York Space Systems – $629mm IPO – (0.2%) offer-to-current
  – Ethos Technologies – $200mm IPO – (20.8%) offer-to-current
  – EquipmentShare – $859mm IPO – +26.9% offer-to-current
  – BitGo – $213mm IPO – (25.0%) offer-to-current
  – Aktis Oncology – $365mm IPO – +12.5% offer-to-current

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, FOMC, BEA. Market data as of 12/31/26. Issuance figures exclude SPAC IPOs.