Equity Capital Markets Update, March 2026

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U.S. Market Commentary

Key U.S. Macro Themes

Geopolitics and Global Trade

• Conflict with Iran intensified into a sustained multi-front campaign, with Iran maintaining a near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz and expanding attacks on regional energy and shipping infrastructure
• Oil prices surged past $100/bbl amid the largest disruption to global energy flows in decades, driving renewed inflation concerns and riskoff sentiment across markets
• Tariff policy remained in flux in March, with the administration’s 15% blanket tariff facing legal scrutiny following February IEEPA ruling
  – As collections continue, uncertainty around enforcement durability and potential ~$170B in refunds has weighed on trade visibility and corporate planning

Monetary Policy, Labor Market, and Inflation

• Fed held rates at 3.50 – 3.75% at March meeting (11-1 vote); dot plot signals one cut in 2026, though timing is uncertain
• Unemployment at 4.4%; February non-farm payrolls (92K) vs. 55K estimate – third time in past five months that payrolls have declined
• CPI rose 2.4% for the 12-mo period ended February 2026; slightly below expectations and capturing data prior to conflict outbreak in Iran

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, FOMC, Federal Reserve. Market data as of 3/31/26. Issuance figures exclude SPAC IPOs.

U.S. Equities Overview

Public Equity Markets

• Equities sold off sharply in March, extending year-to-date losses amid heightened geopolitical escalation and rising oil prices
• Broader indices posted the worst quarterly returns seen since 2022

Equity Capital Markets

• 5 IPOs (~$2B) and 37 Follow-Ons (~$18B) priced in March
• Notable transactions:
  – Janus Living – $966mm IPO – ▲ +17.9% offer-to-current
  – PayPay – $1,012mm IPO – ▲ +32.1% offer-to-current
  – MiniMed – $560mm IPO – ▼ (25.4%) offer-to-current

 Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, FOMC, Federal Reserve. Market data as of 3/31/26. Issuance figures exclude SPAC IPOs.