Equity Capital Markets Update, October 2025

U.S. Market Commentary

Trade, Economic Growth and GDP

Fed stated that U.S. economic growth has “changed little on balance” in the latest Beige Book, but there is softness reported in industries where tariff burdens are more salient, such as durable goods, manufacturing, and agriculture
Tariff policy continues to be a wild card, with the U.S. administration announcing an incremental 100% tariff on Chinese imports in response to China’s tightened export controls on rare earth metals
U.S. real GDP growth forecasted to land in the 1.4 – 1.7% range, with the latest projections expected to be released following the October FOMC meeting

Monetary Policy, Labor Market, and Inflation

Chairman Powell signaled the Fed may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months and highlighted growing signs of weakness in the employment landscape
Market is pricing a 98% probability of a 25bp cut in October and a 96% probability of a 25bp cut in December
Government shutdown is in effect and delaying the release of critical data – nonfarm payroll additions in September estimated at ~17k
Latest CPI readout expected October 24th and the median economist projection is 3.1% – 20bps higher than the last print

Public Equity Markets

S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ performance has been mixed since September 26th amidst resurgent trade tensions and a persistent government shutdown
– Finished the period up +0.3%, (0.1%), and +0.9%, respectively
– YTD performance is +13.3%, +8.9%, and +17.5%, respectively

Equity Capital Markets

Over the last three weeks, 14 IPOs representing >$2BN and 29 followons representing ~$6BN have priced
Notable transactions include:
– Phoenix Education – $156mm IPO – +13.3% offer-to-current
– Alliance Laundry – $950mm IPO – +12.1% offer-to-current
– Neptune Insurance – $424mm IPO – +25.7% offer-to-current
– Fermi – $785mm IPO – +28.7% offer-to-current
We expect U.S. IPO and follow-on issuance levels to level off as we get closer to the holiday period and the SEC’s ability to process deal documents remains hampered by the government shutdown