Equity Capital Markets Update, September 2025

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U.S. Market Commentary

Key U.S. Macro Themes

Economic Growth & GDP

• U.S. real GDP growth is forecasted to come in between a subdued 1.4 –1.7% per latest FOMC economic projections released in September 2025
• U.S. tariff policy uncertainty remains elevated, and much of the actual and potential impacts have yet to be realized

Monetary Policy, Labor Market, and Inflation

• Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate range by 25bps to 4.00 – 4.25% at the September meeting, marking the first cut since December 2024
• Market is pricing an 88% probability of a 25bp cut in October and 69% probability of a 25bp cut in December
• Fed continues to prioritize the maximum employment aspect of its dual mandate, while YoY inflation continues to run above their stated 2% target during a period of historically low unemployment
• U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling; 22k nonfarm payrolls were added in August and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%, which is the highest since November 2021
• CPI was up +2.9% YoY in August, up from +2.7% in July, and Core CPI (excl. food and energy) was up +3.1% in August

U.S. Equities Overview

Public Equity Markets

• U.S. equities extended their upward trend in September on the back of rate cuts and a dovish outlook, with the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ all reaching new all-time highs
  – Finished the month up +2.2%, +0.9%, and +4.3%, respectively
  – YTD performance is +12.3%, +8.0%, and +15.9%, respectively

Equity Capital Markets

• U.S. equity capital markets issuance levels continue to make a recovery, with 17 IPOs representing ~$7bn and 34 follow-ons representing ~$8bn of paper pricing in September
•  >75% of IPO volume was from issuers in the high-growth sectors and notable transactions include:
  – Netskope – $1.0bn IPO – +19.5% offer-to-current
  – Gemini – $446mm IPO – (10.2%) offer-to-current
  – Figure Tech. Solutions – $905mm IPO – +61.3% offer-to-current
  – Klarna – $1.6bn IPO – +3.8% offer-to-current
•  Remainder of the deal calendar is expected to be active across regularway IPOs, follow-ons, and SPAC activity