Equity Capital Markets Update, September 2026

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U.S. Market Commentary

Key U.S. Macro Themes

Tech Leads While Rate-Sensitive Stocks Lag

The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, lifting the target range to 3.75–4.00%, and long-end Treasury yields reached their highest levels in two decades. Equities diverged: the NASDAQ rose 1.9% in September, while the Dow and Russell 2000 fell 4.3% and 5.4% respectively.

• The NASDAQ gained 1.9% in September while the S&P 500 slipped 0.5%, after erasing an intraday gain on the final day of the month
• The Dow and Russell 2000 fell 4.3% and 5.4% respectively, as rising yields weighed on smaller and rate-sensitive companies
• The S&P 500 financials sector was down 6.3% for the month

Hiring Rebounds as Core Inflation Cools

• August payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, and June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000
• Unemployment held steady at 4.1%
• CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, led by a 3.9% jump in gasoline, while core eased to 2.4%, its lowest since March 2021

Fed Begins a Hiking Cycle

• The FOMC voted 12–0 on September 16 to raise rates by 25bp, its first hike since July 2023
• A softer August PCE report on September 30, with core at 3.0% versus 3.3% expected, cut October hike odds to about 37%
• The 10-year Treasury yield ended the month near 5.30% and the 30-year near 5.63%
• September FOMC median projections imply one more hike, with no easing until 2028

Backdrop for Equity Capital Formation

U.S. Equities Overview

Public Equity Markets

• The Fed’s first hike since 2023 pushed the 30-year Treasury to its highest level since 2002, and softer PCE data did little to pull long-end yields back
• Earnings remained the offset, with economists estimating Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of 29.1%, and analysts raising Q3 estimates since June 30 instead of cutting them as usual
• Energy risk intensified as Brent held above $100 for much of late September amid Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, partly offset by a U.S.-China agreement to cut tariffs on $30B of goods
• The fall calendar stalled, as Oura, Holtec Nuclear, and Bamboo Insurance postponed citing market conditions, and Accelevation priced below its range

U.S. SPAC Market Activity

• 152 SPAC IPOs priced year-to-date in 2026, raising $29.9B, against a 2019–2025 average (excluding 2020 and 2021) of 75
• De-SPAC activity continues to stabilize toward pre-pandemic levels, with focus on experienced sponsors, expert management teams, and underwriting discipline in the De-SPAC market
• 2026 De-SPACs priced at less than 5x enterprise value to capital delivered are the only cohort still trading above the $10.00 trust, at a 30-day post-close median share price of $12.03
• SPAC trust capital expiring totals $2.6B in 2026, $25.7B in 2027, and $20.9B in 2028, creating both redemption pressure and opportunity for deployments into new vehicles

2026 SPAC PIPE Activity Shows Renewed Investor Support

• Monthly PIPE size as a share of total enterprise value averaged 16.6% year-to-date, with September at 7.6%
• 2026 year-to-date SPAC PIPE financing comprised $3,138M structured and $883M common equity, versus $2,505M and $202M in 2025
• Financial and Technology led sector participation in SPAC PIPE financing year-to-date, at $1,718M and $671M respectively
• Recent participants include T. Rowe Price, Ribbit Capital, Bessemer Venture Partners, EQT Ventures, Pantera, DragonFly, Galaxy, VanEck, and Susquehanna