Equity Capital Markets Update, August 2026

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U.S. Market Commentary

Key U.S. Macro Themes

Stocks Rise in August as Tech Leads

U.S. equities rose across the board in August, led by the NASDAQ at +3.9%, before Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole address on August 28 roughly doubled September rate-hike odds to ~57%. Softer inflation and payroll data were not enough to offset a Fed still signaling tightening.

• All four major U.S. indices gained in August, led by the NASDAQ at +3.9% and the S&P 500 at +2.7% through August 31
• Nvidia rose 8.7% following its August 27 earnings report, while semiconductor shares pulled back later in the month as investors rotated into defensive sectors

Inflation Eases as Labor Market Softens

• July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core inflation came in at 2.5%
• Payrolls fell by 23,000 and the prior two months were revised down by 103,000
• Participation declined to 61.4%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.2%

Jackson Hole Lifts Rate Hike Expectations

• September rate hike expectations increased following Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks, with market-implied odds rising from roughly 35% to 57%
• The 2-year Treasury yield climbed 12bp to 4.36%, the 10-year reached 4.73%, and the 30-year remained elevated at 5.21%

Backdrop for Equity Capital Formation

U.S. Equities Overview

Public Equity Markets

• Policy expectations moved higher after Jackson Hole, with September hike odds near 57% and the 30-year Treasury around 5.2%
• Corporate fundamentals remained strong, with Q2 S&P 500 earnings up roughly 33% excluding AI-related investment gains, the strongest underlying growth since 2021
• Trade and geopolitical risk increased into month-end as U.S.-Canada tariffs took effect and tensions with Iran escalated, adding uncertainty heading into September
• Around a dozen sizable IPOs are targeting post-Labor Day launches, although the fall pipeline is building more gradually than expected

U.S. SPAC Market Activity

• 147 SPAC IPOs priced year-to-date in 2026, against a 2019–2025 average (excluding 2020 and 2021) of 75
• De-SPAC activity continues to stabilize toward pre-pandemic levels, with focus on experienced sponsors and underwriting discipline in the De-SPAC market

2026 SPAC PIPE Activity Shows Renewed Investor Support

• Monthly PIPE size as a share of total enterprise value averaged 17.3% year-to-date, with August at 14.2%
• Financial and Technology led sector participation in SPAC PIPE financing year-to-date, at $1,718M and $671M respectively
• Recent participants include T. Rowe Price, Ribbit Capital, Bessemer Venture Partners, EQT Ventures, Pantera, DragonFly, Galaxy, VanEck, and Susquehanna